Refacto TerminalPolymarket
AdvertisementYour banner here · 728 × 90 · ads@refacto.app

← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3072320

Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?

43.5% implied · bid 43.0¢ · ask 44.0¢

☆ Log in to track

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 43.0%, down 6.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability43.0%
Bid / ask / mid43.0¢ / 44.0¢ / 43.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (2.3%)
Change 24h-6.00pt
Change 7d+18.00pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 22% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$3,289
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$219 / $143
Imbalance22% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.2 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 45 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.63
RSI (14, hourly)45.5
Realized vol 7d3.13pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 117d 10h.

Time to resolve117d 10h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth