← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3072321
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?
25.0% implied · bid 24.0¢ · ask 26.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 25.0%, up 0.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability25.0%
Bid / ask / mid24.0¢ / 26.0¢ / 25.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (8.0%)
Change 24h+0.50pt
Change 7d+5.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 47% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$570 / $298
Imbalance47% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.35
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d1.21pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 117d 10h.
Time to resolve117d 10h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%