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← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3072321

Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?

25.0% implied · bid 24.0¢ · ask 26.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 25.0%, up 0.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.

Implied probability25.0%
Bid / ask / mid24.0¢ / 26.0¢ / 25.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (8.0%)
Change 24h+0.50pt
Change 7d+5.50pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 47% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$0
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$570 / $298
Imbalance47% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.4 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.35
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d1.21pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 117d 10h.

Time to resolve117d 10h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth