← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3081965
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 96.5%, up 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.3¢ spread.
Implied probability96.5%
Bid / ask / mid96.2¢ / 96.5¢ / 96.4¢
Spread0.3¢ (0.3%)
Change 24h+0.10pt
Change 7d+4.85pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 85/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 23% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$9,239
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$9,540 / $62,860
Imbalance23% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score84.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.0σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.95
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.33pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 10d 4h.
Time to resolve10d 4h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.