← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3081966
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 4.1%, down 0.3pt over 24h, on a 1.2¢ spread.
Implied probability4.1%
Bid / ask / mid2.8¢ / 4.0¢ / 3.4¢
Spread1.2¢ (35.3%)
Change 24h-0.30pt
Change 7d-5.15pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 44/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$195
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$84 / $302
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score44.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 47 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.7σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.70
RSI (14, hourly)46.5
Realized vol 7d0.50pt
Change 1h-0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 10d 4h.
Time to resolve10d 4h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.