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China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

32.0% implied · bid 31.0¢ · ask 33.0¢

The market prices this at 32.0%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.

Implied probability32.0%

Bid / ask / mid31.0¢ / 33.0¢ / 32.0¢

Spread2.0¢ (6.3%)

Change 24h-0.50pt

Change 7d-0.50pt

Moderately liquid (score 53/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 65% to the bid (buyers).

Volume 24h$5,837

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$22,518 / $3,551

Imbalance65% bid

Large trades (>$1k)1

Liquidity score53.0 / 100

RSI 100 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.3σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.27

RSI (14, hourly)100.0

Realized vol 7d0.09pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 118d 12h.

Time to resolve118d 12h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%