← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3093330
Will AfD win 34-37 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
7.5% implied · bid 7.0¢ · ask 8.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 7.9%, down 1.6pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability7.9%
Bid / ask / mid7.0¢ / 8.0¢ / 7.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (13.3%)
Change 24h-1.60pt
Change 7d+3.30pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$4,400
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,077 / $1,487
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 51 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.91
RSI (14, hourly)50.7
Realized vol 7d0.28pt
Change 1h+0.15pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 2d 6h.
Time to resolve2d 6h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%