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Will AfD win 38-41 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?

75.5% implied · bid 75.0¢ · ask 76.0¢

The market prices this at 76.0%, up 3.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability76.0%

Bid / ask / mid75.0¢ / 76.0¢ / 75.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (1.3%)

Change 24h+3.00pt

Change 7d+0.50pt

Moderately liquid (score 58/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 13% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$4,906

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$7,270 / $18,812

Imbalance13% bid

Large trades (>$1k)1

Liquidity score58.0 / 100

RSI 52 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean1.10

RSI (14, hourly)52.2

Realized vol 7d1.03pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 2d 6h.

Time to resolve2d 6h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%