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Will AfD win 42-45 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?

18.0% implied · bid 17.0¢ · ask 19.0¢

The market prices this at 18.0%, up 0.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.

Implied probability18.0%

Bid / ask / mid17.0¢ / 19.0¢ / 18.0¢

Spread2.0¢ (11.1%)

Change 24h+0.50pt

Change 7d+3.50pt

Moderately liquid (score 42/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$3,721

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,838 / $2,406

Imbalance1% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score42.1 / 100

RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean1.43

RSI (14, hourly)50.0

Realized vol 7d0.36pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 2d 6h.

Time to resolve2d 6h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%