← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3093333
Will AfD win 46-49 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
1.1% implied · bid 0.6¢ · ask 1.6¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 0.7%, down 1.8pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability0.7%
Bid / ask / mid0.6¢ / 1.6¢ / 1.1¢
Spread1.0¢ (90.9%)
Change 24h-1.80pt
Change 7d-5.35pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$3,037
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$268 / $144
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 31 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.3σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.32
RSI (14, hourly)30.8
Realized vol 7d0.35pt
Change 1h-0.10pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 2d 6h.
Time to resolve2d 6h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%