← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3120760
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 7.0%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability7.0%
Bid / ask / mid6.0¢ / 8.0¢ / 7.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (28.6%)
Change 24h-0.50pt
Change 7d+1.50pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 7% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$83,258
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$10,602 / $2,529
Imbalance7% bid
Large trades (>$1k)7
Liquidity score46.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 47 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.29
RSI (14, hourly)46.7
Realized vol 7d0.56pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 12d 2h.
Time to resolve12d 2h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.