← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3128768
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 30.0%, down 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability30.0%
Bid / ask / mid30.0¢ / 31.0¢ / 30.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (3.3%)
Change 24h-1.00pt
Change 7d+2.00pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 8% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,391
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$471 / $305
Imbalance8% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 33 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.09
RSI (14, hourly)33.3
Realized vol 7d0.71pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 5h.
Time to resolve73d 5h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.