← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3128886
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 38.1%, up 2.0pt over 24h, on a 0.4¢ spread.
Implied probability38.1%
Bid / ask / mid37.5¢ / 37.9¢ / 37.7¢
Spread0.4¢ (1.1%)
Change 24h+1.95pt
Change 7d-6.40pt
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 55/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 24% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$169,784
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$8,315 / $5,777
Imbalance24% bid
Large trades (>$1k)14
Liquidity score55.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 54 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.11
RSI (14, hourly)53.8
Realized vol 7d0.58pt
Change 1h-0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 5h.
Time to resolve73d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (100)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.