← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3192361
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by October 31, 2026?
95.5% implied · bid 94.3¢ · ask 96.7¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 94.3%, down 1.1pt over 24h, on a 2.4¢ spread.
Implied probability94.3%
Bid / ask / mid94.3¢ / 96.7¢ / 95.5¢
Spread2.4¢ (2.5%)
Change 24h-1.05pt
Change 7d+2.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 64/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 18% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$437
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$7,855 / $43,639
Imbalance18% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score63.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 9 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.0σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.95
RSI (14, hourly)8.5
Realized vol 7d0.24pt
Change 1h+0.20pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 56d 9h.
Time to resolve56d 9h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%