← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3192362
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by December 31, 2026?
98.9% implied · bid 98.1¢ · ask 99.7¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 98.8%, up 0.1pt over 24h, on a 1.6¢ spread.
Implied probability98.8%
Bid / ask / mid98.1¢ / 99.7¢ / 98.9¢
Spread1.6¢ (1.6%)
Change 24h+0.15pt
Change 7d+0.55pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 58/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 25% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$7,044 / $24,755
Imbalance25% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score57.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.88
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d0.06pt
Change 1h+0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 117d 10h.
Time to resolve117d 10h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%