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← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3205508

Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?

30.5% implied · bid 30.0¢ · ask 31.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 31.0%, down 2.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability31.0%
Bid / ask / mid30.0¢ / 31.0¢ / 30.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (3.3%)
Change 24h-2.00pt
Change 7d+1.50pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 49/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 29% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$2,751
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3,600 / $3,467
Imbalance29% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score48.5 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 29 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.30
RSI (14, hourly)28.6
Realized vol 7d1.37pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 25d 9h.

Time to resolve25d 9h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth