Refacto TerminalPolymarket
AdvertisementYour banner here · 728 × 90 · ads@refacto.app

← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3211780

Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?

90.5% implied · bid 90.0¢ · ask 91.0¢

☆ Log in to track

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 90.0%, up 49.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability90.0%
Bid / ask / mid90.0¢ / 91.0¢ / 90.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.1%)
Change 24h+49.00pt
Change 7d+21.50pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 8% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$2,408
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$817 / $2,871
Imbalance8% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.8 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 91 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.5σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean1.55
RSI (14, hourly)90.9
Realized vol 7d4.45pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 25d 9h.

Time to resolve25d 9h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth