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← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3211829

Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?

91.0% implied · bid 89.0¢ · ask 93.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 92.0%, up 66.5pt over 24h, on a 4.0¢ spread.

Implied probability92.0%
Bid / ask / mid89.0¢ / 93.0¢ / 91.0¢
Spread4.0¢ (4.4%)
Change 24h+66.50pt
Change 7d+46.50pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 31/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 38% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$2,300
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$468 / $733
Imbalance38% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score30.6 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.8σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean2.76
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d4.84pt
Change 1h+2.50pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 25d 9h.

Time to resolve25d 9h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth