← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3212530
Will Ursula von der Leyen visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 46.0%, up 16.5pt over 24h, on a 17.0¢ spread.
Implied probability46.0%
Bid / ask / mid54.0¢ / 71.0¢ / 62.5¢
Spread17.0¢ (27.2%)
Change 24h+16.50pt
Change 7d+22.50pt
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 55% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$300
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance55% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 78 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.2σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.23
RSI (14, hourly)77.6
Realized vol 7d4.63pt
Change 1h+0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 5h.
Time to resolve73d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.