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← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3212531

Will Mark Rutte visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?

29.5% implied · bid 16.0¢ · ask 43.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 29.0%, down 1.5pt over 24h, on a 27.0¢ spread.

Implied probability29.0%
Bid / ask / mid16.0¢ / 43.0¢ / 29.5¢
Spread27.0¢ (91.5%)
Change 24h-1.50pt
Change 7d-39.50pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 57% to the bid (buyers).

Volume 24h$0
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance57% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 45 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.81
RSI (14, hourly)44.7
Realized vol 7d3.58pt
Change 1h-0.50pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 118d 11h.

Time to resolve118d 11h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth