← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3212531
Will Mark Rutte visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 38.0%, down 6.5pt over 24h, on a 6.0¢ spread.
Implied probability38.0%
Bid / ask / mid32.0¢ / 38.0¢ / 35.0¢
Spread6.0¢ (17.1%)
Change 24h-6.50pt
Change 7d+6.50pt
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 21/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 7% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$30,668
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,454 / $3
Imbalance7% bid
Large trades (>$1k)3
Liquidity score20.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 57 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.2σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.15
RSI (14, hourly)57.1
Realized vol 7d1.79pt
Change 1h+1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 3h.
Time to resolve73d 3h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.