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← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3212533

Will Donald Tusk visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?

87.5% implied · bid 86.0¢ · ask 89.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 93.0%, down 1.5pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.

Implied probability93.0%
Bid / ask / mid86.0¢ / 89.0¢ / 87.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (3.4%)
Change 24h-1.50pt
Change 7d+27.00pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 95% to the bid (buyers).

Volume 24h$0
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$13 / $51
Imbalance95% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.0 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 47 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.8σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean1.80
RSI (14, hourly)46.7
Realized vol 7d2.56pt
Change 1h+1.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 118d 12h.

Time to resolve118d 12h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth