← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3212538
Will Emmanuel Macron visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 10.0%, down 1.5pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability10.0%
Bid / ask / mid11.0¢ / 14.0¢ / 12.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (24.0%)
Change 24h-1.50pt
Change 7d+0.00pt
Longshot tax-60% historically (0-10¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$135
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$29 / $14
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 33 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.0σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.03
RSI (14, hourly)33.3
Realized vol 7d0.82pt
Change 1h+1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 5h.
Time to resolve73d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 0-10¢ bucket has returned -60% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.