← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3215011
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 1.9%, down 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.3¢ spread.
Implied probability1.9%
Bid / ask / mid1.3¢ / 1.6¢ / 1.5¢
Spread0.3¢ (20.7%)
Change 24h-0.15pt
Change 7d-0.75pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 59/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$2,387
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$20,140 / $775
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score59.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 29 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.54
RSI (14, hourly)28.6
Realized vol 7d0.19pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 100d 5h.
Time to resolve100d 5h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.