← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3215013
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 35.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability35.0%
Bid / ask / mid34.0¢ / 35.0¢ / 34.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (2.9%)
Change 24h+0.00pt
Change 7d+2.00pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 76/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$17,454
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$19,834 / $42,197
Imbalance2% bid
Large trades (>$1k)2
Liquidity score76.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.14
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d1.09pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 100d 5h.
Time to resolve100d 5h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.