← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3215074

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?

1.8% implied · bid 1.8¢ · ask 1.9¢

The market prices this at 1.9%, up 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability1.9%

Bid / ask / mid1.8¢ / 1.9¢ / 1.8¢

Spread0.1¢ (5.4%)

Change 24h+0.10pt

Change 7d-0.10pt

Moderately liquid (score 53/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$19,052

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3,612 / $3,058

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)1

Liquidity score52.8 / 100

RSI 25 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.2σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.19

RSI (14, hourly)25.0

Realized vol 7d0.13pt

Change 1h-0.10pt

Resolves in 26d 11h.

Time to resolve26d 11h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%