← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3251602
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 96.5%, up 0.2pt over 24h, on a 0.4¢ spread.
Implied probability96.5%
Bid / ask / mid96.7¢ / 97.1¢ / 96.9¢
Spread0.4¢ (0.4%)
Change 24h+0.20pt
Change 7d+2.00pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 98/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 12% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,347
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$9,126 / $95,339
Imbalance12% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score98.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 70 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.63
RSI (14, hourly)70.0
Realized vol 7d0.19pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 10d 0h.
Time to resolve10d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.