← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3315101

Will Gil Vicente FC win on 2026-08-16?

100.0% implied · bid 99.9¢ · ask 100.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 99.9%, up 86.5pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability99.9%

Bid / ask / mid99.9¢ / 100.0¢ / 100.0¢

Spread0.1¢ (0.1%)

Change 24h+86.45pt

Change 7d+83.95pt

Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)

B · Liquidity & flow

Deep and tight (score 100/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 100% to the bid (buyers).

Volume 24h$223,914

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$194,786 / $0

Imbalance100% bid

Large trades (>$1k)31

Liquidity score99.5 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 88 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 10.0σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean10.04

RSI (14, hourly)88.4

Realized vol 7d5.90pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 0d 0h.

Time to resolve0d 0h

Resolution sourcedocumented

Rules riskmedium (50)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.

Who holds this

Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

Settlement sourcesNot published.

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementNot published.

Summary

Not published.

Expanded rules

Not published.