← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3392760
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 68.0%, down 3.5pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability68.0%
Bid / ask / mid64.0¢ / 67.0¢ / 65.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (4.6%)
Change 24h-3.50pt
Change 7d+1.50pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$349
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$164 / $512
Imbalance2% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 11 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.0σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.04
RSI (14, hourly)11.1
Realized vol 7d1.44pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 3h.
Time to resolve73d 3h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (35)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.