← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3393089
Will AfD win 20-23 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
0.5% implied · bid 0.1¢ · ask 0.9¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 0.3%, down 1.1pt over 24h, on a 0.8¢ spread.
Implied probability0.3%
Bid / ask / mid0.1¢ / 0.9¢ / 0.5¢
Spread0.8¢ (160.0%)
Change 24h-1.10pt
Change 7d-6.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$302
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $4
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 23 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.15
RSI (14, hourly)23.3
Realized vol 7d0.67pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 16d 6h.
Time to resolve16d 6h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%