← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3393090
Will AfD win 24-27 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
13.7% implied · bid 12.5¢ · ask 14.9¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 13.5%, up 2.5pt over 24h, on a 2.4¢ spread.
Implied probability13.5%
Bid / ask / mid12.5¢ / 14.9¢ / 13.7¢
Spread2.4¢ (17.5%)
Change 24h+2.50pt
Change 7d+12.90pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 38/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$2,861
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$246 / $115
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score38.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 65 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.7σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.71
RSI (14, hourly)64.7
Realized vol 7d1.58pt
Change 1h-0.35pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 16d 6h.
Time to resolve16d 6h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%