← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3393091
Will AfD win 28-31 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
57.5% implied · bid 57.0¢ · ask 58.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 61.0%, down 14.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability61.0%
Bid / ask / mid57.0¢ / 58.0¢ / 57.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.7%)
Change 24h-14.50pt
Change 7d+15.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 16% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,581
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$640 / $600
Imbalance16% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.17
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d1.30pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 16d 6h.
Time to resolve16d 6h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%