← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3393092
Will AfD win 32-35 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
26.5% implied · bid 25.0¢ · ask 28.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 25.0%, up 11.0pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability25.0%
Bid / ask / mid25.0¢ / 28.0¢ / 26.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (11.3%)
Change 24h+11.00pt
Change 7d-24.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 36/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$943
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,071 / $55
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 67 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.11
RSI (14, hourly)66.7
Realized vol 7d3.14pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 16d 6h.
Time to resolve16d 6h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%