← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3399451
Iran leadership change by November 30?
8.5% implied · bid 8.0¢ · ask 9.0¢
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The market prices this at 8.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability8.0%
Bid / ask / mid8.0¢ / 9.0¢ / 8.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (11.8%)
Change 24h+0.00pt
Change 7d-2.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 49/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 8% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$554
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$4,832 / $2,791
Imbalance8% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score48.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.6σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.56
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.14pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 87d 12h.
Time to resolve87d 12h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%