← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3399458

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

84.5% implied · bid 84.0¢ · ask 85.0¢

The market prices this at 82.0%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability82.0%

Bid / ask / mid84.0¢ / 85.0¢ / 84.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (1.2%)

Change 24h-0.50pt

Change 7d-4.50pt

Moderately liquid (score 59/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 17% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$82,996

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$7,315 / $19,725

Imbalance17% bid

Large trades (>$1k)7

Liquidity score58.5 / 100

RSI 14 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.13

RSI (14, hourly)14.3

Realized vol 7d1.40pt

Change 1h+0.50pt

Resolves in 26d 3h.

Time to resolve26d 3h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%