← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3399459
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 86.0%, down 2.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability86.0%
Bid / ask / mid85.0¢ / 86.0¢ / 85.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.2%)
Change 24h-2.00pt
Change 7d+1.00pt
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 81/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 16% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$78,146
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$49,097 / $23,247
Imbalance16% bid
Large trades (>$1k)6
Liquidity score81.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 39 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.7σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.73
RSI (14, hourly)38.9
Realized vol 7d0.94pt
Change 1h+1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 11d 21h.
Time to resolve11d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.