← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3399933
Will Harry Kane finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 97.3%, up 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.2¢ spread.
Implied probability97.3%
Bid / ask / mid97.3¢ / 97.5¢ / 97.4¢
Spread0.2¢ (0.2%)
Change 24h+0.15pt
Change 7d+0.45pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 99/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 10% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$24,334
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$20,811 / $302,228
Imbalance10% bid
Large trades (>$1k)2
Liquidity score99.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 52 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.2σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.15
RSI (14, hourly)51.7
Realized vol 7d0.14pt
Change 1h-0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 5h.
Time to resolve73d 5h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskhigh (70)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.