← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3399934
Will Lamine Yamal finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 83.7%, down 5.7pt over 24h, on a 3.7¢ spread.
Implied probability83.7%
Bid / ask / mid83.1¢ / 86.8¢ / 85.0¢
Spread3.7¢ (4.4%)
Change 24h-5.70pt
Change 7d-8.70pt
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 32/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$2,683
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$378 / $1,075
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score32.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 23 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 4.9σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-4.89
RSI (14, hourly)23.1
Realized vol 7d0.99pt
Change 1h+1.90pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 5h.
Time to resolve73d 5h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskhigh (70)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.