← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3399935
Will Kylian Mbappé finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 82.0%, up 5.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability82.0%
Bid / ask / mid81.0¢ / 82.0¢ / 81.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.2%)
Change 24h+5.50pt
Change 7d+8.00pt
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 53% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$6,742
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$7,971 / $2,225
Imbalance53% bid
Large trades (>$1k)2
Liquidity score50.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 75 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.3σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.35
RSI (14, hourly)75.0
Realized vol 7d0.83pt
Change 1h+1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 5h.
Time to resolve73d 5h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskhigh (70)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.