← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3399938
Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 17.0%, down 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability17.0%
Bid / ask / mid19.0¢ / 20.0¢ / 19.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (5.1%)
Change 24h-1.00pt
Change 7d-8.50pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 6% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$2,842
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$113 / $547
Imbalance6% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score45.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 45 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.24
RSI (14, hourly)45.5
Realized vol 7d1.28pt
Change 1h+5.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 5h.
Time to resolve73d 5h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskhigh (70)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.