← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3478793
Will Scott Gillingham win the 2026 Winnipeg mayoral election?
54.0% implied · bid 53.0¢ · ask 55.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 53.0%, down 18.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability53.0%
Bid / ask / mid53.0¢ / 55.0¢ / 54.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (3.7%)
Change 24h-18.50pt
Change 7d-18.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 18% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$4,488
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$279 / $308
Imbalance18% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score40.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 40 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 3.3σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-3.29
RSI (14, hourly)40.0
Realized vol 7d1.30pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 53d 18h.
Time to resolve53d 18h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%