← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3491459
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?
3.9% implied · bid 3.6¢ · ask 4.2¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 4.1%, up 1.1pt over 24h, on a 0.6¢ spread.
Implied probability4.1%
Bid / ask / mid3.6¢ / 4.2¢ / 3.9¢
Spread0.6¢ (15.4%)
Change 24h+1.15pt
Change 7d+1.20pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 51/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 7% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$4,030
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$7,644 / $188
Imbalance7% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score50.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 96 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 5.1σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean5.05
RSI (14, hourly)95.8
Realized vol 7d0.06pt
Change 1h+0.10pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 56d 9h.
Time to resolve56d 9h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%