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← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3491474

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?

18.0% implied · bid 17.0¢ · ask 19.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 18.0%, up 1.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.

Implied probability18.0%
Bid / ask / mid17.0¢ / 19.0¢ / 18.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (11.1%)
Change 24h+1.50pt
Change 7d-18.50pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 4% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$15,835
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$565 / $68
Imbalance4% bid
Large trades (>$1k)2
Liquidity score40.3 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 68 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.0σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.98
RSI (14, hourly)68.2
Realized vol 7d1.35pt
Change 1h-2.50pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 26d 11h.

Time to resolve26d 11h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth