← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3499790
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 24.5%, up 8.8pt over 24h, on a 1.1¢ spread.
Implied probability24.5%
Bid / ask / mid24.8¢ / 25.9¢ / 25.4¢
Spread1.1¢ (4.3%)
Change 24h+8.75pt
Change 7d+3.95pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$2,414
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$106 / $241
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score44.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 88 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.21
RSI (14, hourly)88.1
Realized vol 7d1.44pt
Change 1h-0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 15d 5h.
Time to resolve15d 5h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.