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← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3554950

Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?

89.0% implied · bid 87.0¢ · ask 91.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 91.0%, up 27.5pt over 24h, on a 4.0¢ spread.

Implied probability91.0%
Bid / ask / mid87.0¢ / 91.0¢ / 89.0¢
Spread4.0¢ (4.5%)
Change 24h+27.50pt
Change 7d+27.50pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 31/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 8% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$855
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$281 / $1,268
Imbalance8% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score30.8 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 45 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.4σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean2.41
RSI (14, hourly)45.5
Realized vol 7d2.22pt
Change 1h-1.50pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 56d 9h.

Time to resolve56d 9h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth