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Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win less than 16% of all valid votes?

2.5% implied · bid 2.3¢ · ask 2.7¢

The market prices this at 3.0%, down 2.5pt over 24h, on a 0.4¢ spread.

Implied probability3.0%

Bid / ask / mid2.3¢ / 2.7¢ / 2.5¢

Spread0.4¢ (16.0%)

Change 24h-2.50pt

Change 7d-4.50pt

Moderately liquid (score 48/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$1,701

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$148 / $93

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score48.1 / 100

RSI 25 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.7σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean-2.72

RSI (14, hourly)24.6

Realized vol 7d0.21pt

Change 1h+0.10pt

Resolves in 8d 6h.

Time to resolve8d 6h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%