← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3562251
Will Moderate Party (M) win less than 16% of all valid votes?
13.5% implied · bid 12.0¢ · ask 15.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 14.0%, down 13.5pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability14.0%
Bid / ask / mid12.0¢ / 15.0¢ / 13.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (22.2%)
Change 24h-13.50pt
Change 7d-16.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$4,544
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$126 / $83
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score35.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 29 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.9σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.95
RSI (14, hourly)29.4
Realized vol 7d0.93pt
Change 1h+0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 8d 6h.
Time to resolve8d 6h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%