← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3562252
Will Moderate Party (M) win between 16% and 18% of all valid votes?
41.5% implied · bid 41.0¢ · ask 42.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 42.0%, up 2.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability42.0%
Bid / ask / mid41.0¢ / 42.0¢ / 41.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (2.4%)
Change 24h+2.50pt
Change 7d+2.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,005
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,019 / $442
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.12
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d0.58pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 8d 6h.
Time to resolve8d 6h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%