← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3562253
Will Moderate Party (M) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes?
33.0% implied · bid 32.0¢ · ask 34.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 30.0%, up 7.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability30.0%
Bid / ask / mid32.0¢ / 34.0¢ / 33.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (6.1%)
Change 24h+7.00pt
Change 7d+11.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,699
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$352 / $425
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 56 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.9σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.89
RSI (14, hourly)55.6
Realized vol 7d0.80pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 8d 6h.
Time to resolve8d 6h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%