← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3562254
Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes?
10.5% implied · bid 9.0¢ · ask 12.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 12.0%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability12.0%
Bid / ask / mid9.0¢ / 12.0¢ / 10.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (28.6%)
Change 24h-0.50pt
Change 7d-1.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$385
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$214 / $110
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.0σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.04
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.33pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 8d 6h.
Time to resolve8d 6h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%