← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3562363

Will Christian Democrats (KD) win less than 5% of all valid votes?

8.0% implied · bid 6.0¢ · ask 10.0¢

The market prices this at 6.0%, down 6.0pt over 24h, on a 4.0¢ spread.

Implied probability6.0%

Bid / ask / mid6.0¢ / 10.0¢ / 8.0¢

Spread4.0¢ (50.0%)

Change 24h-6.00pt

Change 7d-5.00pt

Thin (score 30/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$4,651

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$242 / $285

Imbalance1% bid

Large trades (>$1k)1

Liquidity score30.3 / 100

RSI 18 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.3σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean-2.34

RSI (14, hourly)17.6

Realized vol 7d1.30pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 8d 7h.

Time to resolve8d 7h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%