← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3572979

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?

81.0% implied · bid 80.0¢ · ask 82.0¢

The market prices this at 83.0%, up 14.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.

Implied probability83.0%

Bid / ask / mid80.0¢ / 82.0¢ / 81.0¢

Spread2.0¢ (2.5%)

Change 24h+14.00pt

Change 7d+8.50pt

Moderately liquid (score 41/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 27% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$8,029

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$539 / $865

Imbalance27% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score40.7 / 100

RSI 71 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.2σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean2.25

RSI (14, hourly)71.2

Realized vol 7d2.21pt

Change 1h+2.00pt

No fixed resolution date.

Time to resolveno fixed date

Resolution sourcedocumented

Sum of outcomes100.0%